3 Apr 2017

Australia - No Recession For Over 25 Years - The Clock Is Ticking

According to a Bloomberg article Australia has probably broken the world record for the longest period without recession. The term 'recession' is often defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
There seems to be consensus around the fact this is more good luck than good management. We are so dependent on China's growth that it's not surprising costume foreign affairs minister Julie Bishop wanted to sign an extradition treaty with them, even though they are a Maoist dictatorship with a cartoon legal system.

The iron ore is still moving to China but the reality is both countries are heavily in debt.

Our population is still growing and house prices are rising in tandem. Those graphs look good but the real problem is debt. Australia is buried in it and it just keeps growing.

As Australians debt went up their wages went down. That has pressurised people's lives and they are more inclined to change governments. Meanwhile, government debt is currently 34% of GDP.
Australia's total debt is currently 3.7 times GDP. That means it can never be repaid.
Australia's record run is really a record run of borrowing. By averting the GFC in 2008 Australia was actually setting itself up for an even heavier fall. Will 2017 be the year for a big economic 'correction' in Australia.
(graphs from Bloomberg)

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